Last season the Tampa Bay Rays came out of nowhere with god-like pitching, a little bit of power, and a whole lotta speed to shock every Yankees fan and die hard Red Sox faithful and win the American League East. They had the right elements and they came together at the right time. The club ultimately lost the World Series but still managed to shock the baseball-verse.

This offseason, while the experts have been pondering if the New York Yankees are really destined to return to postseason glory or if the Chicago Cubs can end their first round woes and their 100-year curse with the addition of Milton Bradley, I have been wondering who could be the pull off the next Tampa Bay Rays-type season (before last year this was known as doing a Florida Marlin turnaround).

This means that the team finished in the bottom two in their division, had a sub-.500 record in 2008, has a roster almost void of high-profile, high-priced players (i.e. a roster on a budget), and has a recent history that scares away bandwagon fans.

This leaves surprisingly few candidates. The choices are the Baltimore Orioles (68-93, 5th place AL East, 10st cheapest payroll), the Kansas City Royals (75-87, 4th place AL Central, 7th cheapest payroll), the Washington Nationals (59-102, 5th place NL East, 5th cheapest payroll), the Cincinnati Reds (74-88, 5th place NL Central, 13th cheapest payroll), and the Pittsburgh Pirates (67-95, 6th place NL Central, 4th cheapest payroll).

On paper, without considering any other factors, I have to go with the Cincinnati Reds. The Reds have a star in second baseman Brandon Phillips and three players, first baseman Joey Votto, third baseman Edwin Encarnacion, and right fielder Jay Bruce, who had near breakout seasons last year. Phillips, Votto, Encarnacion, and Bruce can all hit for power and Phillips and Votto can even near the .300 mark. The addition of Willy Taveras gives the team some pure speed on the base paths. If Taveras can find his swing from 2007, then this transplanted Rocky can terrorize pitchers into giving up a few hanging breaking pitches for the big bats.

They also have a potentially top-tiered starting rotation with Aaron Harang (who had an awful season in 2008), veteran Bronson Arroyo, future ace Edinson Volquez, and potential star Johnny Cueto. Cueto has potential. It has yet to materialize, but if this club shocks the rest of the NL Central he could find his mojo in the magic of a Cinderella season. The bullpen has some good guys to hold games with the acquisitions of Arthur Rhodes and Mike Lincoln. Perhaps most importantly, Francisco Cordero is the type of closer who is not going to blow many save opportunities.

I like the Baltimore Orioles batting lineup as well. The team shored up the only young stud they had, right fielder Nick Markakis, by finalizing a six-year, $66 million extension. He is surrounded by sound veterans. First baseman Aubrey Huff is a definite threat at the plate thanks to his power and ability to make contact. Second baseman Brian Roberts, third baseman Melvin Mora, and designated hitter Luke Scott are all veterans that can either make contact (Roberts), hit for power (Scott), or both (Mora).

The only pitcher on the entire team I am sold on is Jeremy Guthrie though. Not all Japanese imports are a guarantee, so Koji Uehara is a risk. Otherwise, a potentially crippling bullpen and a closer by committee are not going to save a starting rotation with four question marks.

Talent wise, the Pittsburgh Pirates simply do not have enough young quality players to make a competitive Triple-A ball club. The Nationals offense could explode, but the pitching is simply too awful to overcome the likes of the New York Mets, Florida Marlins, and Philadelphia Phillies.

The Kansas City Royals might be the team in the best position to make an improbable run. They have some young guys with the ability to make contact (second baseman Alberto Callaspo and shortstop Mike Aviles), they have young guys that may have some power (third baseman Alex Gordon and right fielder Mark Teahen), they actually went out and spent money on a bona fide slugger named Mike Jacobs, and they have a stellar closer in Joakim Sora.

The young starting pitching is a mystery, but the Royals also play in the AL Central. Nobody ever knows what will happen there. This is the division where experts’ predictions come to die. The favorites almost always disappoint and the only thing that can be counted on is that the Minnesota Twins will make some sort of a run at a postseason spot. Otherwise, the division is open to the flavor of the month… or season.

The Reds also are fortunate to play in the NL Central. The division is led by the Chicago Cubs, a franchise with a well-documented penchant for failure and late season collapses. The Cardinals have just entered into the beginning of a rebuilding effort, the Brewers are in trouble after failing to resign Sabathia, and the Astros will almost assuredly be advertising a fire sale if they have another slow start.

Sadly, the Orioles simply have too many teams to overcome in the AL East. The Tampa Bay Rays look more and more like a real multi-season threat thanks to the acquisition of Pat Burrell and the fact that they still have their amazing pitching staff. The New York Yankees went on a spending spree to reload the team with younger talent. The Boston Red Sox have made few moves, but the team remains complete and Jason Bay is far from a bad replacement for Manny Ramirez. Also, the Blue Jays are another solid team with good pitching and the talent in the lineup to score a few runs.

I have already commented on the Pirates and the Nationals. No amount of inspired hitting can overcome their obvious pitching deficiencies. So, my first choice to surprise this summer has to be the Royals, followed by the Reds, and finishing with the Orioles.

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