Bring Baseball Back Down to Earth
One of the most exciting things about the beginning of the baseball season is the first few weeks. I think they are kind of like he first few rounds of the NCAA Tournament. You get some real surprises at first before reality sets in and brings those hopeful teams and players crashing down to Earth. Here are some of my favorite trends that will come burning through the stratosphere over the next couple of weeks.
AL East: A League of Their Own
If you take a look at the standings in that coveted division, a division I am sure is the best in baseball, you will notice that the pre-season front runners are all trailing the Toronto Blue Jays and the Baltimore Orioles. The last time the Blue Jays finished a season in the pennant race was in the early ‘90s when Rosie O’Donnell was childless and trying to make a movie career, Madonna was age-appropriate hot, and Tom Hanks had yet to be an annual favorite at the Oscars.
At 5-2 Toronto is leading the pack, but this honeymoon is bound to be just a little spring fling. I like the Blue Jays and thought they might be competitive, but competitive for the third or fourth spot in the division. Right now they are riding an offensive high, currently boasting the most prolific team in Major League Baseball.
Right fielder Adam Lind is leading both leagues in RBI and the batting lineup has five regular starters with an average over .300. Lind may keep a torrent pace, being only 25 and apparently primed for a breakout season, but the only other bat worth noting, or walking, is Vernon Hill. The other players getting in on this early opening week hitting spree are Marco Scutaro, a 33-year-old utility player; Scott Rolen, a third baseman who has been plagued by injuries since 2004; and Aaron Hill, a young player who is modeling his career after Scutaro.
The Blue Jays will eventually run out of men on base for Lind and Hill to drive in, and, though their pitching staff might improve despite having only two starters worth putting on the mound (Roy Holliday and Jesse Litsch), the team is far too old to go on an improbable season-long race like the Tampa Bay Rays last season.
Baseball fans in Baltimore have to be happy with this early 4-2 record. However the Orioles began last season with a 6-1 record before spiraling down the path to a mediocre 68-93 record. This is pretty much the same team with one pitcher, Jeremy Guthrie, worth trading for once the pennant race heats up and one batter, Nick Markakis, worth developing a major league lineup around. Look for much of the same this year.
Meanwhile the New York Yankees have yet to play a home game in the new stadium and the Boston Red Sox have yet to start hitting up to par with their absolutely loaded lineup (currently driving in the fifth fewest runs in the league).
Ken Griffey Jr.: Making Seattle Relevant to ESPN Again
Yes, opening day was exciting for Seattle sports fans thanks to a fifth-inning home run by Ken Griffey Jr., who graciously took a contract with the Seattle after leaving the perpetually depressed city in 2000. Since hitting the home run, Griffey has proceeded to bat .133 with one more hit.
The Mariners may still win the AL West since the Los Angeles Angels have been stricken with the injury bug that has depleted even their starting rotation. The strength of this team was never supposed to be the hitting. Ichiro can hit all the singles he wants and occasional Griffey blasts may inspire some reminiscing, but it will be up to starting pitchers Erik Bedard, Felix Hernandez, and a possibly rejuvenated Jarrod Washburn to turn this 5-2 start into a long-lasting limping lead in one of the worst divisions in baseball.
Either way, if the staff is able to continue the phenomenal pitching or the pitching fails to impress so much, the Seattle Mariners are bound to inspire little confidence or celebration in a city that has suffered Post Traumatic Stress Disorder after losing a place in the NBA once the Sonics bolted to Oklahoma City, losing first place in the NFC West thanks to the deterioration of the Seahawks offensive line, and losing its place in music after Grunge died in 1993.
The South Rises Again
The top two teams in the NL East are the Florida Marlins (5-1) and the Atlanta Braves (5-1). The Marlins have been fortunate to open the season with a six game home stand. They have a very young team, but even this pitching staff is too young to make this the latest Marlins team to be heartbreakers in the playoffs. The Braves signed Derrick Lowe and Javier Valquez, but one excellent starting pitcher and one ok one are not enough to carry a rebuilding team over a season that lasts 162 games.
The Philadelphia Phillies will start to play like returning World Series champions soon. They may still lose the NL East, but it will be to the New York Mets, not the Braves or the Marlins. The Mets and Phillies have been fighting for first place in the division since 2006 and will continue that epically underrated battle this season.
The Phillies may have lost Pat Burrell this winter, but the team still boasts Ryan Howard, Chase Utley, Jimmy Rollins, and Jayson Werth. Howard, Utley, and Rollins will probably do battle for the NL MVP again this year. Cole Hamels and three serviceable starting pitchers in Brett Myers, Joe Blanton, and Jamie Moyer give the Phillies a great squad.
The balanced Mets can brag about the batting lineup with Carlos Delgado, David Wright, Jose Reyes, Carlos Beltran, and Ryan Church and gush about its pitching with ace Johan Santana; starters Mike Pelfrey, Oliver Perez, and John Maine; and closer Francisco Rodriguez. I like the young Marlins and the inspiring Chipper Jones and the rest of the Braves, but like the war that was fought 148 years ago, this is a war of attrition for the South.
Obscene Batting Averages Galore
I believe that statistics for batting leaders should not include batting average until at least a third of the season is past. Why? Because after seven days of baseball four players are on track to hit better than .500.
Yes, the Chicago Cubs Ryan Theriot is hitting an astonishing .550, followed by the Red Sox Kevin Youkilis at .522, the Detroit Tigers Miguel Cabrera at .520, and the Marlins Emilio Bonifacio at .500. There are 14 other players who could hit at least .400.
This is not to say that all these guys are destined to hit .265. Youkilis hit .312 last season and Cabrera is in his second season with the Tigers after being a .330, 30 HR, 120 RBI threat for the Marlins. In fact I agree with the Bill Simmons' podcast from Page 2 on ESPN and believe Cabrera, at 25 years old, could be a Triple Crown Contender. He has had a season to adjust to Major...ahem, American League pitching and managed to hit three home runs and drive in 10 runs in seven games.
While some teams have managed to shock the system, some are already on pace to finish in their appropriate place. The Washington Nationals are 0-6 and could realistically finish the season without a single win, displacing the shame the Lions set upon the sports world in the 2008-09 NFL season. The San Francisco Giants are already tied for last place in the sad NL West, a position they will most likely hold for sometime as penance for letting Barry Bonds use their field to make the career home run a sports travesty. The AL Central is crowded with teams playing around .500 ball, something the division will have to get used to because every team has a realistic chance to win perhaps the most competitive and unpredictable division from the last few years.




