The first official pitch has yet to be thrown at the Cactus League in Arizona and the first error has to doom the Double-A ballplayer trying to get a shot at the majors. Still, most of the American fan base is beginning to take stock of the upcoming 2010 MLB season. They are trying to get a grasp on their favorite team’s starting rotation (who’s our number three starter?) and trying to see if there is any hope late in the lineup.

Well, after writing a number of baseball previews I have looked over every depth chart and team transaction list on ESPN and can kind of, sort of remember all that. The one thing I can tell you is which teams I think will or at least could potentially surprise everyone, even the pundits, late this summer when they are still sticking around.

Of course, it would first help to define what qualifies a team as a surprise. The team must have tortured fans with a brand of MLB baseball that ended in a losing season in 2009, or they will have to have had a fire sale, leaving no recognizable names on the roster. In order for that team to be a surprise they need to do more than simply post a winning record, they must compete for a playoff spot. So, let’s take a look division by division.

American League East: There no surprises here. The Tampa Bay Rays could oust the Evil Empire and the Red Sox Nation from first place or second (known as the AL Wild Card), but the Rays were just in the playoffs two seasons ago. Neither the Blue Jays nor Orioles are going to breach the top three in the standings this season post-All Star game. The only potential situation that could count as a shocker in this division is if the New York Yankees self-destructed a year after winning the 2009 World Series.

American League Central: Can there be a surprise in the AL Central. Heck, last season it seemed plausible that the Kansas City Royals could make a run at the division title. Experts are picking the Detroit Tigers to win, but they are almost all placing asterisks by that prediction stating that the Minnesota Twins and Chicago White Sox could very easily end up in first…or second, or third, or fourth, or fifth place.

American League West: The Seattle Mariners would be the first shocker of the American League, but they went and finished with a winning record last season. Oh well, still expect the Angels to win though.

National League East: The first potential surprise team of the year resides in New York and plays at Citi Field. Sure, fans kind of want a do-over with the new stadium design, but this team is loaded and comes into this season over shadowed by the Yankees once again. Injuries or a curse of some sort were cruel to this team last season, robbing of just about every All Star with some sort of freak injury and somehow convincing David Wright that he should try and be a contact hitter. This New York Mets team is loaded at the plate and could be passable on the mound.

National League Central: It seems odd to consider the Milwaukee Brewers a possible surprise since they only finished two games under .500, but they are a gigantic potential distraction for the Chicago Cubs and St. Louis Cardinals. Another team that I look at and just think there is a slight chance in Hell for is the Cincinnati Reds. I know this seemd ludicrous, but the top three pitchers in the starting rotation (Aaron Harang, Bronson Arroyo, and Johnny Cueto) are good pitchers and there is enough youth in the outfield to couple with Joey Votto and Brandon Phillips to make a run just because they do not know they are supposed to be bottom dwellers.

National League West: The Arizona Diamondbacks have a great staff and a potential Hall of Fame outfielder in Justin Upton. Sure, they went 70-92 last season, but they could turn things around like they did in 2007. Of course, most people remember this so it is hard to call them a surprise.